Monday, August 18, 2014

Science: Logical Fallacy; Correlation equals Causation


Example of a positive correlation 

Logical fallacies are rampant in today’s media and politics. How many times have you heard "Study Finds that Coffee Improves Brain Function" or "Cat Owners are Friendlier than Dog Owners." on the news? This is a blatant example of how the media tends to oversimplify things for public perception. Assuming because two things happened simultaneously is not enough evidence to suggest that one caused the other.

What is a Correlational Relationship?

A correlational relationship states that two things coincide with each other. As one increases the other tends to increases. When two variables are moving in the same direction we call it a positive correlation. When two variables are moving in opposite directions we call it a negative correlation. Correlations do not imply that one variable will cause the other.

Moreover, correlational relationships tend to have other variables at play. Such as the correlation with African Americans and the Crime Rate. There are socioeconomic factors, statistical bias factors, racial profiling factors at play that can affect this statement.

Examples

Studies have shown that intelligent people tend to listen to classical music

This does not translate to “listening to classic music will make you more intelligent”, and being intelligent does not mean you have to like classical music. Just that a lot of intelligent people just so happen to listen to classical music. It should be noted that a large amount of intelligent people are also born in the wealthy cultures which do tend to favor classical music. Hence we see a third variable at play.

“Rich people tend to be more educated.”

This does not imply you have to be rich to be educated. Only that rich people tend to be more educated mostly because of socioeconomic factors. They can afford several opportunities to benefit the education of their children. Not all rich people are educated, not all poor people are uneducated

“People with larger shoe sizes tend to have better reading ability”

You don’t have to be a size 14 to comprehend what you are reading. In fact you can have a large shoe size and be downright illiterate. This example just shows that there is a third variable at play which we might not know about.

What is a Causal Relationship?

A causal relationship on the hand does mean that one variable will cause the other. An important main difference from correlation relationships that one should remember is that causal relationships are usually a one way street; Because it is a cause and effect relationship.

Examples

“When water is heated high enough, it will eventually boil.”

A rather obvious one. When water is heated its molecules will move faster and its temperature will rise. Eventually with enough heat it will boil.

“School was canceled in several high schools across the state, so less kids went to school.”

Another rather obvious one. 

“As the wind speed increases, the sail boat moves faster.”

The sail boat operates on wind so if the wind speed were to increase it would move faster. This does not imply because a sailboat moves faster the wind MUST have increased speed. This is a perfect example of a causal relationship.

Logical Fallacy

Now we can easily see why correlation equals causation is a fallacy.

Fallacy

Premise 1 - A and B are both variables
Premise 2 - A occurs in correlation with B
Conclusion - Therefore A and B must be causally related

Now that we know what a causal relationship and what a correlational relationship is, we can see that the conclusion is blatantly false. Both A and B have a correlational relationship that can be easily said. But there is not enough evidence to suggest that they are causally related. Correlation can be a hint that two variables may but that’s about it.






References
Causation and Correlation. (n.d.). Retrieved September 24, 2014, from http://www.nku.edu/~garns/165/ppt9_2.html
An Introduction to Psychology Research Methods. (n.d.). Retrieved September 24, 2014, from http://psychology.about.com/od/researchmethods/ss/expdesintro_5.htm
An Introduction to Psychology Research Methods. (n.d.). Retrieved September 24, 2014, from http://psychology.about.com/od/researchmethods/ss/expdesintro_4.htm
STATS: We Check Out the Numbers Behind the News. (n.d.). Retrieved September 24, 2014, from http://www.stats.org/faq_vs.htm
Types of Relationships. (n.d.). Retrieved September 24, 2014, from http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/relation.php

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